As the Nevada interest rates are on the brink of an increase, experts are predicting a recession in the US economy in 2023.
Investors and banks have their doubts about the future of the US economy. Most are confident in the likelihood of a recession next year, and President Biden is being blamed by both Democrats and Republicans.
"PPI is in at 11.4% for March, this forecasts an even higher number of future inflation and certainly the beginning of a recession. The reckless Biden executive orders and policies issued since day one, are the main contributors to most of this. #selfinflicted," tweeted Commissioner Sean Morrison.
According to an April 12 report from the World Economic Forum, both retail and professional investors hold a gloomy outlook on the country's economic future. A Bloomberg Markets Live survey, conducted between March 29 and April 1, revealed that 48% of investors expect the US to fall into recession next year. Another 21% expect the downturn to happen in 2024, while 15% of the 525 respondents expect the recession to come as early as this year.
Deutsche Bank was the first major Wall Street firm to predict a recession is on the horizon for the US. "We no longer see the Fed achieving a soft landing. Instead, we anticipate that a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy will push the economy into a recession," Deutsche Bank economists led by Matthew Luzzetti wrote in a recent report. The economists forecast a mild recession that will begin in the final quarter of next year and continue into the first quarter of 2024, with unemployment peaking above 5%, according to Fox Business.
The US Bank of America is another firm that has announced its prediction of an oncoming recession. In an analyst note to clients, Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett said that surging consumer prices, combined with an increasingly hawkish central bank, could precipitate an economic downturn in the US. "Inflation shock worsening, rates shock just beginning, recession shock coming," Harnett has warned.
History suggests the current oil shock raises the probability of a US recession in the near future. As opinion contributor Liz Peek from The Hill points out, "the last four recessions have been preceded by sharp hikes in energy prices," adding that "$120 oil is a red flag." Peek points out what many economists already know: the Federal Reserve's only option in their effort to curb spiraling prices is to hike up interest rates in order to slow growth.
In the latest Wall Street Journal poll, which was conducted March 2-7 and surveyed 1500 general election voters nationally, 63% disapproved of Biden's handling of inflation. Additionally, by a wide margin, respondents chose Republicans over Democrats as better able to handle rising prices.
On April 12, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the 12 months ending March 2022. The data showed an 8.5% all items annual increase, which is the largest increase in over 40 years since 1981.
Current mortgage rates in Nevada are 5.15% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, and 4.36% for a 15-year fixed mortgage, as reported by Bankrate.com on April 13, 2022.
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